Online Poker Adventures with ‘mrjackstraw’

A little while back I mentioned that I was going to take up an exercise involving sit and go’s.  I think I will do a few more of these and you will see why after I lay all this out.  I played this set of fifty on the Full Tilt 9 person tables at the level of $2 +.25.  The payouts for the top three positions at this level are: 1st - $9.00; 2nd - $5.40; 3rd - $3.60.

Over the course of this 50 table challenge my entry fees would be $112.50.  I was able to turn this into $142.20 for a ROI of 26.6%.  Overall not too bad, but I think once you see some of the numbers you will be disappointed as I was.

Results:

1. 6
2. 13
3. 5
4. 6
5. 5
6. 4
7. 5
8. 4
9. 2

I was ITM (In the money) 24/50 times which is good.  What really shows up here though is how pathetic I played heads-up.  19 top 2’s and I only converted one third for victory.  The top position means everything in S&G’s and it’s one of the reasons I don’t care too much about busting 4th or 5th.  I will make plays to chip up when we are down to these levels.  If I had pulled through on even just 4 of the second place finishes my results would have jumped up to a gross of $156.60 for a ROI of 39.2%.

My longest cash streak was 5.  My longest cashless streak was 7.  I was hoping to be able to move up to the $5 S&G’s and do this all again, but I’m not quite rolled for that.  I am going to run through this same one again one more time and see where I’m at.  Obviously I think this is a +EV situation for me so onward and upward!

-mrjackstraw-

I have harvested some of my numbers from www.officialpokerrankings.com so we can take as look at them. These numbers are far from impressive but useful nonetheless to see if I’m at least heading in the right direction. So we will look at my all time numbers, my 2007 numbers and finally the last 120 days. The categories covered will include total prizes (PRI), profit (PRO), return on investment (ROI), average buy-in (ABI), average field size (AFS), in the money (ITM), in the money percentage (ITM%), where I finished when I did make it to the money and my average finish when we break the field down like this: Early (10%), Early Middle (20%), Middle (40%), Middle Late (20%), and Late (10%). For clarification, in a 100 person tourney if I were to bust as one of the first 10 people out (I know, I know. Very unlikely :-)) then that would be early and if I were to make it into the top 10, therefore top 10% then that would be late. It will be written as: 10/20/40/20/10

All Time

PRI = $945, PRO = $0, ROI = -22%, ABI = $7, AFS = 348, ITM = 40/177, ITM% = 23

Finishes: 1st: 5; 1st (ties): 2; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 4; 4th-10th: 13; Other: 16

AVG Finish: 5/13/41/27/14

2007

PRI = $844, PRO = $0, ROI = -17%, ABI = $7, AFS = 342, ITM = 34/154, ITM% = 22

Finishes: 1st: 3; 1st (ties): 2; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 4; 4th-10th: 11; Other: 14

AVG Finish: 3/12/44/27/14

Last 120 Days

PRI = $497, PRO = $0, ROI = -2%, ABI = $5, AFS = 324, ITM = 16/97, ITM% =16

Finishes: 1st: 5; 1st (ties): 0; 2nd: 0; 3rd: 2; 4th-10th: 4; Other: 5

AVG Finish: 6/11/39/30/13

OK, so not huge. Kind of pathetic really, but there is hope. Things are moving in the right direction. I actually had a 103% ROI in December and so far in January I’m at 14%. I think that ROI is the most important number when analyzing tournament performance. That being said I think I can use these other numbers to analyze my play and maybe see some differences between when I was really negative ROI and what I’ve been doing lately when my results have been more positive. I know that the overall sample size is small, probably too small to draw accurate conclusions, but it’s all I have right now.

Things I like: I like my ITM %. For each area sampled the total was at least 16%. I think if I’m in the top 10 percent 16% of the time I’ll be OK. I have 5 1st place finishes all coming within the last 120 day period and no 2nd place finishes. This shows that playing those heads-up matches has helped my game. I know there were a few situations where I was behind in chips by a lot and was able to come back. People at the lower levels seem to want to rush heads-up play and where my stack size permitted I tried to control the pot sizes while seeing as many flops as possible. A few of these 1st’s were 18 man S&G’s but there was a 45 and 180 person tourneys as well.

I don’t take a lot of chances early in tournaments. I think any time you see I have gone out among the first 10% of players to bust it’s been because of AA getting cracked when I was able to get them in behind or a set over set situation. It’s during the next two levels that I think I need to be opening things up a little bit more. Usually I’m quite content to sit and wait for 30% of the field to bust and only jump in when I have something good. What I would like to start doing during the 90-40% remaining period is jab a bit more, play more pots but not take the KO punch and leave my self wide open. Jab, jab, jab…when I meet resistance pull back. I have had my greatest successes when I’ve chipped up early and was able to pound away on those around me.

I will probably return to look at these numbers in 3 months time to see where I’m heading. I think I will break down some of my sit & go numbers soon too. I am currently in the middle of playing and recording my play at 50 $2 nine person S&G’s so I am going to post those results soon.

Until next time consider this: Lidstrom should win the Hart. If you are a hockey fan - a fan of great players - is there anyone else more valuable to their team? The next time the Red Wings are on TV focus on him as much as possible. This guy is on pace to finish +63 this year. Let that settle in as you think of who he gets matched up with every night. Over the course of his career he is +372 and the Red Wings have lost just 331 of 1226 regular season games since Lidstrom has suited up.

-mrjackstraw-

Obviously the first one is to write here on a more regular basis. So far I kind of suck at blogging and the thing is that I have a lot to say to no one in particular. It’s been real busy the past month or so and we are getting ready for a move too. I’ve been playing a steady amount of poker with some encouraging results.

I just busted out of a $5 KO tourney on Full Tilt. These are something new that Full Tilt has added in the last month or so. What happens is 80% of your buy-in goes towards the prize pool and 20% is your bounty. I finished 20/1055 which is good, but not great considering how close I was to the final table and how it “went own”. I had about 90000 chips with the blinds at 2500/5000 with 500 antes so there’s about 11000 and change in the pot to start. UTG [and chip leader (140000)] raises to 20000 and everyone fold to me on the button. I haver 88. Yes, off-suit. Based on my assessment this guy kinda fluked into his chips and his results on “Officialpokerrankings.com” more or less confirmed this. He had been calling behind and raising with pretty yet mediocre hands. He had just taken a beat on the previous hand as well. Soooooooo I push. Now he flipped over A9o which was along the lines of what I expected, but I don’t like the way I played it at all. The A didn’t come until the turn which is right where I expected it. Ha! I think in this situation so close to the real money I needed to just call the raise and then try to out play him once the flop hits. I can take one shot at a continuation bet when he checks (which he would have) the flop and still had over 50000 behind with which to work if things didn’t work out.

So four hours of work got me a payout of $16.50. Less my buy-in a solid $11.00 profit. First was $980.00 I did manage some KO’s though. I counted 7 in all at $1 each so that bumps me back up to $18.00 profit. I was really happy with how I played throughout the middle stages. I had the chip lead after the 2nd hour. My stack got sliced in half after I took JJ up against AK. 3710 flop. I bet, he pushes, I call. K hit on the river. I raise pre, get called and bet out at the flop. There is 13800 in the middle when he bumps it 10000 more and is all in. I call getting 2.3:1 with a 3:1 advantage which is perfect. I mean, I read the hand for what it was and made the right move. So on top of that I got jobbed out of that KO as well. Getting back to the KO’s, I didn’t do too well the first few times I played these. I think it’s because I was trying to get the KOs when what you really need to do is just play your regular game. If you play well they will come. It’s a different story if you’re playing in say a $5 tourney with some people that have $200 on their heads or something along those lines. In that case it may be justifiable to take a shot at some profit, but at one buck a person at the $5 level I think it’s best just to consider it a supplement to the buy-in and if you happen to get a free tourney out of it, great.

I guess I got a little off track on the resolutions. Others for me include kicking the habit (smoking). Very serious this time. I will keep you informed, but this needs to happen. It’s been a good run. Enough is enough. I also need to learn to type. Properly. I mean this one goes hand-in-hand with the blog. I could spit out a lot of shit if I could just giver on the ol’ keyboard. I have a typing teacher that my girlfriend bought me. I got a little frustrated with it and quit. The only problem I see is that I will want to play poker instead of doing my typing lessons so maybe a schedule is needed. 45 min a day or something like that. I do the typing and then I can play a 18 man S&G.

Poker wise I think I want to see a positive ROI in tourneys and I am on the right track to do this. I think I will do a post that will look at my 2007 stats and see what sort of goals I can set.

OK that’s about it for now. I should be at that final table, but I got a post in and hopefully learned a lesson that will aid in my development. I can’t be too upset about top 2%, but of the 19 others left there were about four who I considered competition. I’ll be back!

Congrats to the Michigan Wolverines and to Lloyd Carr.  Great career.  Great coach.  Now the Rodriguez era begins!

-mrjackstraw-

Yeah, so I hope no bet the farm on what I had to say in my very amateur World Series preview because I messed that one up BIG TIME!  I think the Rockies are kinda screwed now.  Even if they take 2/3 at home they still have to come back and sweep the Sox at home.  You have to say from this point onward the BoSox have to have the favorable pitching match-up every night.  The one bit of hope the Rockies have is that it’s NL rules and maybe they can take advantage of that (3 times!).  The Sox are going to have to sit Ortiz or Youk.  Ortiz really can’t field and production wise they are about equal in the playoffs so I say you sit Ortiz.  Of course I don’t manage a big league team so what do I know?  Maybe Francona will go with one over the other depending on the pitching match-up.   The Sox are already at a defensive disadvantage with Manny ‘throslikeagirl’ Ramirez playing in a much deeper left field than at home.  You gotta think there will be more NL style play calling, bunts, etc and Big Papi could have some trouble with this.

Matt Holliday went 4 for 4 in game two and then promptly got picked off 1st base in a one run game in the eighth inning by Papplebon.  As stupid as that was, it’s more stupider to not draft him for your fantasy team next year, given the chance.  Oh yeah, you can take that to the bank!

Pokerwise I haven’t done much this week.  I had a 22/180 and a 54/455 in $2 & $5 tourney’s respectively.  Missing the money by a hair in each, but I ain’t playing for the money no more.  I’m playing to win baby!  I have a good cash session where I went up about $30 so I decide to play in the $24+2  -  $28000 GTD tourney.  Of 1100 ppl I went out 1083rd.  Doesn’t sound too good does it?  Me AQ.  Flop Q-8-2 rainbow.  This is me all the way.  I mean my only real concern is 88.  6 on the turn.  We get to the river and all my money is in.  I don’t usually like to go all the way with AQ early, but I made a read and went with it.  Anyways he turns up 55 and well you can prob figure it out from there.  GG me.

So it’s Friday and I’m about even so the goal is going to be $70 by Wednesday playing .10/.25 NLHM, $2 or $5 tourneys and $5 heads-up shootout (I’ve been getting killed in these lately).  I think what I might do is sit and play cash and if I make some early money re-invest it in a tourney.  Also I won’t be playing in any more $26 tourneys for now unless I satellite in.

-mrjackstraw-

Well the show was finally posted online and all I have to say is “Thanks” to all the tapers out there for doing such a good job. It’s so great to listen to bands who allow their shows to be traded instead of the ones that are slaves to their record companies. I guess when you suck you gotta sell as many albums as you can while your “hit” is out there. LOL.

Here’s the set-list from Oct 18, 2007:

Set 1:
Good Morning Little Schoolgirl
Big River
Leopard-Skin Pill-Box Hat
The Wheel
I’m So Gone
Scarlet Begonias>
Fire on the Mountain

Set 2:
Cosmic Charlie
Althea
Cold Black Devil
Cryptical>
The Other One>
Jam>Dazed & Confused tease>
Caution
Help on the Way>
Slipknot!>
Franklin’s Tower
Sugar Magnolia

Donor Rap/Intros
E: Turn on Your Lovelight

Show Link

Now these songs either mean something to you or they don’t; and that’s OK. But those who know are looking at that Cryptical>Other One, imagining the bass bombs Phil was dropping and just smiling. Let me break down the day (as I saw it, ha ha). I went with my buddies Sameer & Andy and Andy’s buddy Kevin who, as these thing usually go is now my buddy too. Sameer & I drove early leaving at 1pm from Toronto. I brought my Jerry doll along as he hadn’t been on a road trip in a while. We checked into our hotel and headed to the pubs of Chippawa St which is conveniently located right next to Shea’s Performing Arts Center. We sat on a patio and enjoyed some pints while awaiting the arrival of Andy & Kevin. Once they arrived we had a few more and then headed over to the theatre. We located the Shakedown St out back and partook in its buffet. It must have been someones birthday because there were a lot of balloons around

I’m not going to break this down in too much detail, but the first set had a country blues feel to it. Jackie Green is a 26 singer/musician from San Fran that Phil brought as one of his friends this tour. Great voice. He did an amazing job the whole night. I guess the first set highlight was the Scarlet>Fire to close it off. It was the first time that the two had been played together this tour as they normally were from 1977 on with the Dead. With the Cosmic Charlie opener of the second set we knew we were going into space. Ha ha. Althea - what can I say, great tune and the crowd loved it. Cryptical>The Other One was spectacular and this is where the band really “blasted off”. Led Zep tease to shut that suite down and then Caution followed by Help>Slip>Franklin’s. I have always loved Slipknot and I think often times it gets forgotten in the middle there. I don’t think it’s that easy to play and it’s so much fun right before they drop into Franklin’s Tower. “Roll away…”. I thought that was it, but a nice Sugar Mags brought us home. Phil did his standard Donor Rap. (67yrs old and such a cool cat. He bought the new Radiohead album because he like their concept of letting fans pay whatever they want. So did I.) Jackie Green dominated the encore with Lovelight. Sweet.

We went back out near Shakedown St and gathered ourselves. Kevin had to take off as he had to teach the next day. What a circus! Sameer, Andy & myself went to a bar where a Grateful Dead cover band was playing and had a couple of drinks to finish off the evening. (Phil was done at 11:15pm). They were called Sonic Garden and man were they good! We heard New Minglewood Blues, Looks Like Rain, and Deal for sure. Not sure about the others. Anyways we ended made it back to the hotel at a time that probably reflects out increasing age. LOL. Overall it was a great trip. I’m glad I’ve been able to meet Deadhead Andy and Deadhead Sameer through some other friends. I think my GF gets a little tired of me dragging her around to all these shows. Plus I can talk about a bunch of Grateful Geek stuff and don’t get looked at like I’m from another planet. Kev’s more of a Phish-head and I know that scene. Big time. We chatted during set-break about the full on intensity of a ‘Run Like an Antelope’ set closer as compared to the Scarlet>Fire we had just seen. Now you really cannot go wrong either way, but I know exactly what he was saying. “Set the gearshift for the high gear of your soul….”

Good times, good times.

-mrjackstraw-

Well the Fall Classic starts tonight from Fenway Park in Boston and it’s the Colorado Rockies who will provide the competition for the Red Sox. I know this is promoted as a poker site first with a little sprinkling of Grateful Dead for good measure, so you may be asking, “What qualifications does he had to be writing on this topic?” First, I have a blog which is all I really need to spout off. Second, I finished second in my fantasy baseball league this year and I assure you this was no fluke. So here we go…

I am cheering for Colorado, but I believe Boston is the favourite and it would surprise me if they didn’t pull this off. Beyond the fact that I dropped $5 on the Rockies before the playoffs started to win it all (you gotta ride that streak, right?), as a Canadian and owner of Francis this year, I’m really pulling for him. I mean he’s starting game one in the World Series. Did Ferguson Jenkins ever do that? I don’t have a research staff, but a quick Google & I can’t find anything that shows playoff stats of any kind. He did mainly play for the Cubs, so…anyways, I digress.

I think the Rockies if they can find a way to somehow beat the almost untouchable Beckett on the road will have a chance. At the very least they need to get out of Beantown with a split. Both of these teams can put up big numbers very quickly if they get it going. We have some great hitters to watch in Holliday, Helton, Atkins for the Rockies and Rameriez, Ortiz & Lowell for the Sox. Both teams are good fielding teams with the slight edge going to Colorado in my book. I think this is one of the areas that Colorado can use to steal a game in Boston. Both teams have some good young players. Troy Tulowitzki, the Rockies SS is a lot of fun to watch and both Pedroia and Elsbury on the Sox play at a level beyond their years. Watch Elsbury when he bats with two strikes. Wise beyond his years.

I like the Boston bullpen better, especially if they get to Papplebon. That guy is fierce. I think managing in the NL prepares one better for the post-season style of managing and is a definate advantage when playing at home. Francona has won a World Series however, so edge wise I guess you go with him.

Both of these teams got here for a reason. Will the layoff be bad for the Rockies? These guys are used to continuous playing basically from April on, but the thing with baseball is even though it’s a team game, each action is individual. Throw a pitch, take a swing, steal a base. Say what you want about the Tigers losing momentum last year, but it just comes down to game-plan and execution. If you walk the first batter of an inning bad things are going to happen. If you hit well with RISP good things will happen. It’s possible in baseball to play well, but just have bad timing. We’ll see.

I just want to end this off by saying that the Rockies run to end the season and get into the play-in game was incredible to me; someone with no stake emotionally or otherwise in this team. Now their run through the playoffs, 7-0, bringing their total to 21 wins in their last 22 games is why sports are so incredible. It’s also why as a Lions fan I will never give up hope because anything can happen to any team at any time.

Go Rockies!

-mrjackstraw-

Oh yeah. I put $3 on the Rockies paying +180 ($8.60). 21/22 with Francis pitching. I know it’s vs. Beckett in Boston, but if there’s a team that can win this one you gotta think it’s these guys.